Global InfoAnalytics’ first parliamentary seat prediction shows that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections.
The Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model from the research organization predicts that the NDC will win 154 seats in the next election, which is 185 seats less than what it won in the parliamentary elections of 2024.
Even though it would still give the NDC a majority in the 276-member Parliament, the projection indicates a potential 29-seat decline in the party’s parliamentary representation.
Meanwhile, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is expected to grow its representation to 100 seats from the 88 it won in 2024, a prospective gain of 12 seats.
The model leaves two toss-ups, twenty classified as “not disclosed,” and twenty-two constituencies still undecided.
The Eastern Region has five undisclosed seats, followed by the Ashanti Region with four, according to the regional breakdown. The Upper East has two, whereas the Western Region has three.
Each of the following regions has one unreported seat: Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North, and Bono.
The two toss-up constituencies are in the Bono and Ashanti areas.
According to the forecasts, the NPP will control 36.2 percent of the 20 unidentified seats, which make up 7.2 percent of the total parliamentary seats, while the NDC will control 55.8 percent, and the two toss-ups will make up 0.7 percent.
The data point to a smaller parliamentary majority for the ruling NDC in 2028 if the model’s predictions come true.
The 29-seat possible loss, however, should be regarded as a projection of the ultimate election result rather than a prediction. The two toss-up districts are still up in the air, and Global InfoAnalytics has not yet released its projected party choices for the 20 seats.
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